Working Group 3 will test and develop further several application activities on how to use phenological data and especially the reference data set, resulting from the Action. The methods under consideration are primarily

• mapping of phenological phases (including interpolation)
• trend analyses (including uncertainty tests)
• correlations between phenological phases and other climate elements.

Phenology is probably the simplest process by which to track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change (Walther, G-R et al, 2002). Many studies in Europe and North America have already revealed phenological trends that very likely reflect responses to recent climate change. The timing of spring activities of plants in particular show an advance to earlier dates (mostly depending on temperature increase). The effect of a future climate with possibly even higher temperatures and changed precipitation patterns on the biosphere constitutes one of the greatest concerns of the climate impact community. In this regard, a worthwhile task will be the development of methods connecting large scale atmospheric variables - the output of GCM scenarios for the future climate - with local scale biosphere phenomena without the detour via models between local biosphere and local atmosphere. Many phenological spring phases reveal a strong link with the North Atlantic Oscillation phenomenon (e.g. Chmielewski and Rötzer, 2002 with data of the IPG, Scheifinger et al, 2002 for central Europe). These biospheric variables should be particularly suited for downscaling procedures (e.g. Maak, K. H.v.Storch, 1997, Matulla C., 2003).

WG 3 will have close contact with COST Action 719 'The Use of Geographical Information Systems in Climatology and Meteorology'. Typical application results in the European area will be included in the final reference data set.

Chair of Working Group 3 is:
Annette Menzel
Technicale University Muenchen
Department of Ecology
Am Hochanger 13
85 354 Freising
menzel@met.forst.tu-muenchen.de  

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