COST meta-analysis of European trends in phenology
Goal
Provide national overview (step 1) and Europe-wide meta-analysis (step 2) of all observed changes in phenology (animal / plants)
Background
Reporting of trends in phenology in peer reviewed journals becomes more and more difficult. Especially, reporting of "no change" or "change opposite to the direction expected" is extremely difficult. However, this information is highly valuable for the IPCC assessment of observed changes (AR4, to be published April 2007), also in order to document the entire observations and changes available: this meta-analysis will be not biased by reporting / no reporting.
How does the meta-analysis work ?
1) Register by email to Annette Menzel (step 0)
menzel@forst.tu-muenchen.de, express your interest to participate.
2) Deadline April 1st 2005 (step 1a):
Country-by-country reporting of observed changes in the timing of phenological events by calculating linear regressions on corrected phenological time series of your country. This should be done (where possible) for three different periods: 1951-2000, 1971-2000, and all available years. Please note the two periods 1951-2000 and 1971-2000 are fixed, thus these cells in the following excel sheet are marked in RED.
For each time series analysed the following parameters are needed:
- Species (English and Latin name), phase (English), BBCH code. Analyses of all phenophases available are welcome. In case that there are too much records and you feel that you have to concentrate, then choose good phases which have been selected by WG1.
- Latitude, Longitude (in decimal degrees), Elevation of station (m a.s.l.)
- Mean and SD of the onset in the respective period (days)
- Slope and SE (from regression of date on year)
- Significance of slope
- Indication of trend in temperature at this location
- Indication of correlation with temperature at this site
- A text reference
The excel table provided on this page provides an example of all parameters to report. This excel table must be submitted for further meta-analysis to A. Menzel and T. Sparks.
3) Deadline Sep 1st 2005 (step 1b):
Publication of national results (step1a) on the Internet or as a national report
4) Sep 5-9, 2005 (step 2a)
Results of meta-analysis will be reported by Menzel / Sparks at the ICB2005 congress
5) Sep 30, 2005 (step 2b)
Submission of a joint COST725 paper of all contributors of step 0 to 1b (max. 2 per country) to an international, peer reviewed journal
Annette Menzel (Chair) and Tim Sparks (co Chair) of WG 3
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